We knew it would be an important weekend in the race for UEFA Champions League football but we didn’t expect quite such a seismic shift; quite such a pivotal moment for as many as six Premier League clubs desperate to finish in the top five.
Just two of the six teams behind Liverpool won, leaving Newcastle United (suddenly chasing a runners-up place) and Aston Villa the big winners as Chelsea and Nottingham Forest saw their chances dramatically diminish.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +28 | 71 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +21 | 69 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +21 | 66 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +7 | 66 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | +12 | 65 |
The tension and high drama was present almost everywhere you looked, most notably at the City Ground, where Forest head coach Nuno Espirito Santo and owner Evangelos Marinakis were seen in post-match conversation.
Forest officially qualified for Europe, guaranteeing themselves a top-seven finish with their 2-2 draw against Leicester City, but will no doubt see it as two points dropped, raising the prospect of a straight shootout between themselves and Chelsea on the final day when the two teams meet in Nottingham.
If only it were that simple. Villa can still squeeze through the middle, a scenario made more likely by them playing both UEFA Europa League finalists Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United in their last two matches, while Newcastle still aren’t technically safe – and neither are Manchester City, after their draw against Southampton.
Even Arsenal aren't safe. A 2-2 draw at Liverpool has raised the prospect of Newcastle moving above Mikel Arteta’s with a win at Emirates Stadium next weekend.
In fact, incredibly, the Gunners could still finish sixth, one of countless scenarios still possible with two rounds left.
Newcastle could come second – or sixth. Villa can win both of their matches and knock Man City out of the Champions League places, or they can win both and still miss out themselves.
The possible permutations are almost too many to count, but one thing’s for sure: whatever happens a fortnight from now, we will look back on today as one of the most important days of the season in the race for Champions League football.
Away form and record without Jackson concern Chelsea
For Chelsea, this wasn’t far off a disastrous outcome.
They are now level on points with Villa but above them on goal difference, meaning – with Villa facing both Europa League finalists in the final fortnight – Chelsea probably need to win both of their final matches.
Forest v Chelsea at the City Ground on 25 May looks more and more like it will be a winner-takes-all showdown. Enzo Maresca has numerous obstacles to overcome if he is to be victorious.
Forest have conceded the second-fewest home goals in the division (15) and Chelsea, who have lost six of their last nine away matches in the Premier League, must find a way through Nuno’s defence without Nicolas Jackson, who is set to serve a three-match ban after being sent off at Newcastle.
Chelsea have lost three of the six Premier League matches in which Jackson has not featured this season, including defeats at Brighton & Hove Albion and Arsenal, when Maresca’s side amassed just 0.5xG and 0.4xG (Expected Goals) respectively.
Even with Jackson available Chelsea might have looked blunt at Forest; since Christmas Day, only Leicester and Southampton, with only four points, have picked up fewer away points in the Premier League.
But without their No 9, and with Cole Palmer still looking a bit laboured, all of a sudden Chelsea may be outsiders to get back into the Champions League.
Forest, mind, could win that match – and still miss out.
Newcastle eye second place
In a strange match of contradictions at St James’ Park, when Newcastle were on top until Jackson’s red card swung momentum in Chelsea’s favour, it was fitting that the match-winning moment was somehow both typical and untypical of Eddie Howe’s Newcastle.
A fourth goal inside the opening two minutes of a Premier League match this season was in keeping with how the Magpies so often burst out of the blocks.
They pressed and tackled brilliantly in the opening phase of the match, but how they did so was virtually unseen in the Howe era.
The Newcastle head coach went with a lopsided 3-4-3 formation in which one Anthony Gordon, nominally on the left, ghosted into the middle to become a spare midfielder.
Newcastle's first-half formation
Chelsea were bamboozled, the early goal was scored, and Howe claimed a tactical victory, even if ultimately Maresca’s own clever switch to a 3-5-1 after the red card had the hosts on the ropes for long periods.
Newcastle are now in control of the race for Champions League football. They effectively only need three points from their final two matches to guarantee qualification, and with Everton at home on the final day, their fans have started believing.
But Howe can aim even higher. This win, followed by Arsenal’s draw at Anfield, took Newcastle to within touching distance of Arteta’s side ahead of their trip to Emirates Stadium on Sunday.
A second-place finish, for the first time since 1996/97, is on the cards.
Forest lose ground but qualify for Europe
Forest have secured European football for the first time since 1996 but they were in no mood to celebrate at the final whistle.
This was, without doubt, a wasted opportunity; a home banker squandered as Forest lost ground in the race for UCL qualification.
It was a battle of the No 10s at the City Ground and one that, until a late twist, Morgan Gibbs-White looked to have won.
Twice Leicester’s leading playmaker, Bilal El Khannouss, tried an unnecessarily difficult forward pass within his own half. Both times it was Forest’s playmaker who punished him.
The first misplaced pass was intercepted by Gibbs-White, leading to an Anthony Elanga free-kick from which Gibbs-White headed in the equaliser.
The second El Khannouss concession enabled Forest to regain possession and funnel it out to Gibbs-White who, taking advantage of the disorganisation following the turnover, played a perfect cross on to the head of Chris Wood to complete the turnaround.
But after such an engaging tussle between Gibbs-White and El Khannouss, it was a third No 10 who stole the headlines.
A mazy run and neat finish from Leicester substitute Facundo Buonanotte was a dagger in the heart of Forest fans, who were stunned into a silence from which neither they nor the Forest players could recover.
But all is not lost. Wood getting on the scoresheet is reason to believe Forest can beat Chelsea on the final day and leapfrog above them.
Wood, with just his second goal in nine Premier League matches, was ruthless for his finish, playing his way back into form just as Chelsea’s striker faces suspension.
Two weeks from now, that could be the difference.
Arsenal’s lapses at back raise fears
Despite his post-match frustration, Arteta's mood will be raised by his side’s second-half response at Anfield but he will also know Arsenal are not there just yet.
Arsenal fans will be concerned by the slack defending from William Saliba and Jakub Kiwior that allowed Cody Gakpo and Luis Diaz each to score from unmarked positions in the first half.
Liverpool's first goal v Arsenal
Those lapses simply cannot happen next weekend, not after seeing how aggressive Newcastle were from the outset against Chelsea.
Arsenal will need to meet fire with fire if they are to avoid defeat, avoid slipping to third, and avoid needing a result against Southampton on the final day to guarantee a top-five finish.
You would back them to do that… and yet you would have said the same of Man City yesterday, before their 0-0 draw with Southampton at St Mary’s. The nightmare outcome is not impossible.
That’s how close it’s got, how tense and unpredictable the 2024/25 season has become. Not even Arsenal are safe.
