FPL lessons: Invest in Crystal Palace and Bournemouth attacks next season

The Scout highlights the standout statistics, trends and lessons from 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League.

An assessment of the Expected Goals (xG) data over the past two seasons helps to highlight those sides who improved their attacking threat from 2023/24 to 2024/25.

xG is a statistical metric that estimates the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal, considering factors like shot distance, angle and the assist leading to the shot. It assigns each shot a value between 0 and 1, where a higher xG value indicates a greater probability of scoring. For example, a shot with an xG of 0.5 has a 50 per cent chance of resulting in a goal.

Perhaps surprisingly, only FOUR of the 17 clubs who have remained in the Premier League over the last two seasons improved their xG in the season-on-season assessment.

Crystal Palace lead the way in their first full campaign under Oliver Glasner.

As the table below shows, Palace had an xG of 49.15 in the 2023/24 season, but this jumped to 61.33 last season. The difference between those two numbers, which is known as the "xG Delta", was a hefty +12.18.

AFC Bournemouth are the only side who run Palace close. The Cherries' xG total climbed by +8.25, from 56.69 to 64.94 in the previous campaign.

Brighton & Hove Albion and Brentford are the only other sides whose xG took a turn for the better last season, albeit very marginally, by +1.19 and +0.33 respectively.

The table also helps to highlight the huge drop-off in goal threat of both Arsenal and Manchester City, in particular.

Despite finishing as runners-up to champions Liverpool, Arsenal's xG total slumped from 77.42 to 61.58 over those two campaigns, with their -15.84 xG Delta the worst in the league.

Third-placed Man City were similarly unimpressive, with a drop of 12.78 in their xG last season.

Best xG improvement, 23/24 to 24/25

By focusing purely on last season's numbers, both Palace and Bournemouth again have plenty of reason for optimism.

Glasner's side scored 51 goals and had an xG of 61.33, with their xG Delta of -10.33 showing they were the league's biggest underperformers in terms of anticipated output.

This suggests their forward Jean-Philippe Mateta, along with midfield pair Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr, can step up their goal contributions in 2025/26.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, had an xG Delta of -6.94, the third-worst in the league. Again, this offers encouragement for their key attackers such as Justin Kluivert, Antoine Semenyo and Evanilson.

Elsewhere, Manchester United will be hoping their summer signing Matheus Cunha can help their attackers get back to their best.

The Red Devils ranked second bottom for xG Delta, with a score of -9.48. Cunha, meanwhile, was part of a Wolverhampton Wanderers side that ranked second for overperformance, with a total of +9.63.

The numbers also indicate that Nottingham Forest could struggle to maintain their goal output in 2025/26.

Their xG of 46.57 was the third-lowest of the 17 sides who will remain in the Premier League next season.

Yet they managed to score 58 goals, with their xG Delta of +11.43 making them the top overachievers in 2024/25.

Biggest xG underperfomers, 24/25

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